PILSEN — While incumbent Ald. Danny Solis will likely hold on to his 25th Ward seat, he could face a runoff in the race, a new poll showed.
The one-question poll, commissioned by Aldertrack and conducted by Chicago-based Ogden & Fry, asked a sampling of 340 likely voters who they planned to vote for in the 25th Ward race.
According to the poll, 54 percent of respondents said they had voted, or planned to vote, for Solis. The rest of respondents split their vote between the remaining four candidates: 13.5 percent for CPS teacher Ed Hershey; about 13.5 percent for activist Jorge Mujica; about 13 percent for Byron Sigcho, lead instructor at UIC's Center for Literacy; and about 6 percent for financial adviser Roberto "Beto" Montano.
The poll shows Solis likely has a big lead in the race. But the question of a runoff is too close to call — the poll's calculated margin of error is about 6 percent.
Solis would need to land more than 50 percent of the vote Tuesday to avoid a runoff election, and while the poll prediction puts him at 54 percent, the low end of the poll's margin of error would put the longtime alderman below that threshold.
In 2011, the 25th Ward race went to a runoff, but Solis ultimately defeated challenger Cuahutemoc Morfin with 54 percent of the vote.
The 25th Ward includes parts of Pilsen, Chinatown, the West Loop, Little Italy and Heart of Chicago.
The election is Tuesday. Early voting began Feb. 9.
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