ROGERS PARK — Since 2006, crime in Rogers Park is down 53 percent, but a wave of robberies and an increase in burglaries, assaults and batteries threaten to stop that downward trend.
Taking into account those crimes, plus homicides and car thefts, crime has risen in the neighborhood by about 2.95 percent in the first eight months of 2016 compared to crime in 2015, according to a DNAinfo analysis of city crime data.
A whopping 98.31 percent rise in robberies this year is the biggest increase, followed by an approximately 17 percent jump in burglaries; an 8.33 percent increase in assaults; and a 7.29 percent bump in batteries.
Car thefts dropped by 1.35 percent and were the only thefts included in the analysis, as the Chicago Police Department switched to only recording felony thefts (over $500) in 2011.
With the exception of vehicle thefts, police beat 2431 — bound by Lunt, Pratt, Clark and the lake and which contains Morse Avenue — has seen the biggest uptick in crime over the last year, though it's the smallest police beat in the neighborhood.
The beat has seen a 214 percent spike in robberies, a 230 percent jump in burglaries, a 71.43 percent hike in assaults and 30.77 percent increase in batteries, data shows.
This year, an 18-year-old was shot near the Morse Red Line, and in May police alerted community members to a series of strong-arm robberies near the train.
Around the corner from the train, a Rogers Park Provisions employee was robbed, punched and told to wait in the bathroom afterward by an unknown attacker who entered the store.
Resident John Warner has kept an eye on Morse Avenue, beat 2431 and surrounding areas for years in his capacity as the founder of Rogers Park Positive Loitering and separately as a liaison between police and the community though its CAPS program.
For the last eight or nine years, Warner said he's organized "positive loitering" events that encourage members of the community to show their presence at hot spots in the area — particularly open drug deals and other "gang activity."
This year, Warner said he's had no positive loitering events because crime had been on the decrease, though he said things are being planned with his group for the future.
"We haven't gone out because I felt that we've not needed to," Warner said. "There is a situation that is coming up that we will be going out again."
Though some crimes have spiked this year, shootings have gone down in the neighborhood.
Last year saw 40 gunshot victims in 29 shootings that left five dead, while 2016 has seen its shootings, victims and deaths from shootings cut in half — 16 victims across 15 shooting incidents. Two of those people died, though Antonio Johnson's March death was on the border of Rogers Park and West Ridge.
In January, 19-year-old Loyola University student Khrystyna Trinchuk was shot in her back, but survived, after leaving her off-campus apartment at North Shore Avenue and Clark Street.
She's now living on Loyola's campus in student housing after moving out of her apartment and staying with family for a while.
"When I am on campus grounds I do feel safer," Trinchuk told DNAinfo recently. "There is a security presence on campus, but a lot of students live off campus, so I don’t think that if I lived off campus again I would feel safe.
"I have noticed Loyola's campus safety presence on campus, but once you get off of campus I think there should be more of a CPD presence to make sure that all the residents of Rogers Park can feel safe," she said.
Trinchuk said even before being shot, she would take extra precautions like using the university's ride system or calling an Uber if she felt unsafe walking, but there is only so much people can do to protect themselves from crime.
She didn't "believe that the neighborhood overall is any safer" since her ordeal started in January, but that she won't let the experience keep her from moving forward at the school.
"I do believe, though, that with senseless violence, there are only so many measures someone can take until the situation at hand is out of their control," she said. "All I can do is embrace and accept everything that has happened so far and acknowledge that I possess the strength to overcome whatever adversity I am faced with."
Crime statistics show that before the uptick in 2016, crime was at its lowest point since 2005, which saw on average 194 more instances of assault, battery, robbery, burglary, vehicle theft and homicide per month compared to 2015.
Officers in the Rogers Park Police District have emphasized forming block clubs, calling 911 and taking part in a burglary assessment.
Among those involved in the Burglary Assessment Teams are police officers, beat facilitators and community members working together to identify vulnerable areas for burglary during an exterior assessment of someone's home or business.
Warner said despite the recent surge, the Morse Avenue area and neighborhood in general have come a long way from when he planted roots here 14 years ago.
"When I moved here 14 years ago, there were constantly people being shot on Morse, Ashland, Pratt, Clark, all day and all night. You didn't know what was going to happen," Warner said. "Now ... very little drug deals are going on. The shootings have basically been nonexistent. Yeah we still have them, but compared to what they were, they're nonexistent."
"I'm not saying it's all cleared up because it hasn't — but it's a hell of a lot better than it was."
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