UPTOWN — A new poll suggests incumbent Ald. James Cappleman has the lead in the 46th ward race.
Conducted by Ogden & Fry for the political website Aldertrack, the recently released poll asked 433 likely voters who they'd vote for if the election was held Feb. 13.
Cappleman received 243 votes or 56.1 percent, Amy Crawford received 131 votes or 30.3 percent, and Denice Davis received 59 votes or 13.6 percent.
The poll suggests that Cappleman has a 25-point lead and an outright majority, according to Ogden & Fry.
"Unseating an incumbent in Chicago usually requires both money and a catalyst, both seem lacking for Crawford," the analysis reads.
But "since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last two weeks, there is still room for further development in this race," according to the analysis.
"I would put it at a low probability of a runoff," said Tom Swiss of Ogden & Fry, who called Cappleman's lead "overwhelming."
He added that Crawford has got a "very difficult task."
Of the 433 likely voters who were polled, 225 of them are men and 205 are women. Likely voters between ages 18 and 30 accounted for 7.4 percent, those between 31 and 45 accounted for 34.6 percent, those between 46 and 64 accounted for 32.1 percent, and those over 65 accounted for 25.9 percent.
The poll is made up of 219 likely voters in the 60613 zip code, 188 in the 60640 zip code and 26 in the 60657 zip code.
They were selected from voters who have voted in at least one of the last three aldermanic elections, Ogden & Fry said.
The election is Tuesday.
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