KENWOOD — Wednesday morning’s unofficial vote totals showed just how severe state Rep. Ken Dunkin’s defeat was as he failed to hold on to his seat against challenger Juliana Stratton, and how much money she raised to defeat him.
How much either Dunkin or Stratton actually spent won’t be known for several weeks, but estimates from state filings show at least $3.9 million was raised, that's nearly $173 for each voter who went to the polls in the 5th District on Tuesday.
Dunkin was defeated by Stratton 18,488 votes to 8,804 in Tuesday’s election, which proved to be one of the most expensive and high-profile state House races in recent memory.
Dunkin captured a majority of the vote in just three of the 106 precincts in the 5th District, which stretches from the Near North Side to South Shore through Bronzeville, Washington Park, Woodlawn and Grand Crossing.
Those three precincts also had nearly the lowest turnout in the entire district, with none topping 10 percent, in a race that saw 32 percent of the 84,490 registered voters come out to the polls to cast a ballot in the race.
Turnout was highest in Grand Boulevard near Oakwood Boulevard and Martin Luther King Drive, where 65 percent of voters came out to the polls and delivered Stratton one of her largest margins of victory.
The race was expected to break fundraising records. While exact numbers won’t be available until the campaigns make their final filings with the state in several weeks, it’s clear that Dunkin’s election night estimate that $4 million was spent on the race is probably not far off.
According to filings made with the state as of Wednesday, $3.9 million was raised on behalf of the two candidates.
“The money spent on this House race was as perplexing for me as it was to those on the outside,” Dunkin said in his Tuesday night concession speech. “This was a gubernatorial race in terms of what was spent.”
Much of that money appears to have come from a very small group of donors.
For Dunkin, $1.3 million of the estimated $1.7 million he had available during the race came from one donor, the Illinois Opportunity Project.
The group founded by former Republican gubernatorial candidate Dan Proft supports candidates who pursue free-market policies and has heavily supported Republicans over Democrats in previous elections.
Matt Besler, president of the group, said in Feb. 1 announcement on the group’s website that it was supporting Dunkin because he was standing up to House Speaker Michael Madigan.
“Dunkin’s support for certain structural reforms well predate the election of Gov. Bruce Rauner,” Besler said. “For example, in 2010, Dunkin voted for the school choice legislation ... sponsored by then state Sen. James Meeks.”
The group seems to have changed its mind about Dunkin in recent years, having given Dunkin an F grade on supporting pro-growth legislation in its 2012 vote card.
Stratton benefited from newfound connections to Democratic politicians all around the state and some of Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s biggest donors in Chicago, raising an estimated $2.1 million.
Democratic politicians as far south as Harrisburg on the southern border of the state gave money to Stratton’s campaign, giving almost always exactly $50,000.
Michael Sacks, the CEO of Grosvenor Capital Management and a strong financial supporter of Emanuel’s re-election campaign, so far appears to be the largest single donor to Stratton’s campaign. Sacks contributed $200,000 to her campaign over a span of four days in the second week of March.
According to state filings, Sacks is estimated to have contributed at least $2.4 million of his personal wealth to Chicago-based political groups and Chicago politician’s campaigns since 1994, at least $2.1 million of that spending happening since Emanuel began his first run for mayor in 2010.
The campaigns will have to file reports with the state by April 1 to show exactly how and how much of the money they raised was spent.
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