CHICAGO — A national poll shows more than half of those responding think violent crime is getting worse in the country, with more than 75 percent of supporters of Donald Trump believing it to be true.
But that pessimistic view, reflected in a recent Pew Research report, is contrary to declines in crime in the country.
Violent crime numbers and media coverage in Chicago and other major cities might be affecting the nation's understanding of how safe the nation is, the report says.
Citing the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program, which tracks serious crimes reported to police around the nation, the Pew researchers said between 2008 and 2015 violent crime dropped 19 percent and property crime rates fell 23 percent. The Justice Department's Bureau of Justice Statistics said the drop in crime was even steeper.
Among Trump voters, 78 percent in the Pew poll said crime has gotten worse since 2008; some 37 percent of Hillary Clinton supporters said the same.
During his campaign, Trump repeatedly criticized Chicago for its crime while frequently citing incorrect statistics about violence in the city. At one point, he likened the city to a "war zone" and said if Chicago police were "much tougher" they could end violence in a week.
Crime is out of control, and rapidly getting worse. Look what is going on in Chicago and our inner cities. Not good!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 12, 2016
The Pew researchers wrote "Chicago and other large U.S. cities have had well-documented problems with violent crime in 2016 that may have contributed to public perceptions."
Pew points to a New York University School of Law analysis of crime in the United States that said while crime is increasing in some cities, the nation's crime numbers remain among the lowest in 30 years.
The NYU scholars said few cities are projected to see crime increase this year, though "Chicago will see significant, back-to-back increases in both violent crime and murder." Notably, shootings are up 50 percent in Chicago this year.
The NYU authors say some media portray crime as "out of control" or "heralding a new nationwide crime wave." But the "rising violence in Chicago is the main driver of the national murder increase this year."
Data suggests "that most Americans will continue to experience low rates of crime," the NYU report says.
"In Chicago, murder is projected to rise significantly while crime rates fluctuate unevenly in the rest of the country.
"These local challenges call for close attention. But there is not a nationwide crime wave or rising violence across American cities. Warnings of a coming crime wave may be provocative but they are not supported by the evidence."
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