CHICAGO — Voter turnout in Chicago is expected to fall to an "unsatisfying" amount in the 40 percent range, an election official said Tuesday. That could mean good things for candidates like Hillary Clinton and Anita Alvarez.
Though early voting and voting by mail hit "significant" levels this year, a lull on Tuesday afternoon indicated this year's turnout would be lower than in the past, said Jim Allen, a spokesman for the Board of Election Commissioners. If the weather held, turnout was expected to be in the range of 40 percent, Allen said.
"We do not — do not — expect to reach the 53 turnout [of 2008] or anything close to it unless there's a huge evening rush at this point," Allen said, later adding that the board was hoping for a rush later in the day.
Lower-than-expected turnout could mean good news for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, said Dick Simpson, a political science professor at UIC. Turnout varies based on if voters think they have a choice — and they have significant choices in the presidency and state's attorney races — and if they think they can make a difference and care about the outcome, Simpson said.
"With Clinton, the low turnout will almost definitely mean that she wins Illinois," Simpson said, adding that Clinton was expected to get the "regular vote" and the women's vote. "Bernie Sanders would need a high turnout."
A turnout of 40 percent could indicate Millennials, people in minority communities and people who don't vote consistently didn't turn out as much for the primary as they have in years past, Simpson said.
"Clinton losing the popularity contest in her home state would be a big loss," Simpson said. "But if the turnout is down I would expect Clinton to win."
Turnout could be down because of negative campaigns, which drive participation, Simpson said. He had predicted turnout to be "relatively high" Tuesday and saw higher than usual turnout at his North Side precinct.
"Voters conclude that they don't like any of the candidates and the politics [are] too negative," Simpson said. "And so if the turnout goes down it will be because they've been turned off."
Cook County State's Attorney Anita Alvarez could also benefit from lower than expected turnout, Simpson said.
"If the turnout is down, she is likely, because of her incumbency, to do better than her opponents ...," Simpson said. "It's a battle between the regular vote and whether Alvarez can overcome that with her television ads and the rest. She hasn't run a really good campaign, but she may be able to squeak through with a low turnout."
Voting issues
There have also been hiccups with voting, though the board was not yet planning to ask for an extension, Allen said. The "biggest problem" of the day was with split-precinct ballots, with voters complaining of receiving the wrong ballots.
“It’s one of those morning hiccups that’s common, especially in a primary when you not only have multiple ballot styles but you also have multiple parties and versions of multiple ballot styles,” Allen said.
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There had been a "few dozen" of those complaints scattered around the city, Allen said. Voters who receive an incorrect ballot should inform a judge and get a new ballot. They should not cast their ballot if it's not the right one, Allen said.
A few polling places opened late because of a lack of judges and equipment issues, though in one case a station opened late because "the judges weren't getting along real well." Those who had planned to vote said they should be able to return later, making an extension appear unnecessary, Allen said.
"We're very pleased that that's the case," Allen said.
Four election judges also had to be removed from their posts by mid-afternoon Tuesday. One man in the 33rd Ward had to step down after officials learned he was a candidate on the ballot. Another judge was removed for being drunk, a third for being asleep and smelling of alcohol and a fourth for being "disruptive." That judge was "argumentative and uncooperative" with voters and fellow judges, Allen said.
There had also been some issues with 17-year-olds who wished to vote. Teens who will turn 18 before the general election are allowed to vote in Illinois primaries, but a dozen or so complaints came in of 17-year-olds encountering problems when they went to register and vote early Tuesday, Allen said.
That issue appears to have been resolved, Allen said, and anyone who encounters a similar issue should call 312-269-7870.
In the morning, election judges were rushing to address minor issues and irregularities at polling places in Lakeview, Lincoln Park and Humboldt Park, officials said.
Technicians were sent to Second Church of Christ Scientist, 2700 N. Pine Grove Ave., to sort out faulty ballot scanners, Allen said. The machines were fixed, Allen said.
The board also had to send extra election judges to Iglesia Mision Del Valle, 1847 N. Kedzie Ave., after reports that it was understaffed, Allen said.
Finally, Allen said, voting did not begin on time at Lake Park Plaza Condos, 3930 N. Pine Grove Ave., but voting was fully underway by 10 a.m.
Check back for updates on polling irregularities.
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