THE BRONX — Mott Haven and Port Morris may have dominated real estate news in the borough this year, but the neighborhood poised to have a big 2016 is much farther north.
The real estate listings site StreetEasy has predicted that Pelham Parkway will be the third hottest neighborhood in New York City for 2016, behind only Jamaica at number one and Coney Island at number two.
Parkchester and Bedford Park are in the top 10 as well at numbers six and nine, respectively.
The popularity of the outlying Bronx neighborhoods is because of two major factors, according to StreetEasy data scientist Alan Lightfeldt: access to public transportation and affordability.
"These neighborhoods are ranking very high in the minds of New Yorkers as they are dealing with that very high rent burden and trying to lower their share of the income that needs to go to the rent check," he said.
StreetEasy put together their list of the hottest neighborhoods for 2016 based on four factors: the change in rent prices, the change in sale prices, the change in population over three years and the change in page views for listings in each neighborhood.
Pelham Parkway saw its population increase by 10.6 percent between 2011 and 2014, while the neighborhood's median sales and rent prices went up by 2.3 percent and 10.7 percent, respectively, in 2015, according to StreetEasy.
Lightfeldt acknowledged that Pelham Parkway and many other neighborhoods in StreetEasy's top 10 do not get a ton of attention for being hip parts of the city, but their placement on the list reflect how many New Yorkers are mainly looking for a place they can afford.
"They’re hot because they’re gaining traction and they’re gaining attention in terms of the typical New York renter who might face real burdens when it comes to rent," he said.
The Bronx neighborhoods that received the lion's share of attention in 2015 for being trendy were Mott Haven and Port Morris, but Lightfeldt maintained that StreetEasy's data showed a greater interest in the borough's more far flung spots.
"There’s no doubt more attention is being paid to that area of the city," he said, "but when it comes to actually searching for homes and what New Yorkers seem to think is viable in terms of affordability, they’re moving to Pelham Parkway and not Port Morris."
"There is plenty of existing inventory for them to move into," he said. "That’s not as true in areas like Mott Haven."
Although The Bronx is still expected to have the lowest median rent prices throughout the city in 2016 at $1,611, it is also expected to rise by 5.2 percent over the course of the year, more than in any other borough, according to StreetEasy.
Renters in The Bronx should also expect to spend 56.9 percent of their incomes on rent next year, the second highest in the city after Brooklyn at 65.7 percent, according to StreetEasy.
Jeremy Warneke, district manager of Bronx Community Board 11, which includes Pelham Parkway, agreed that the neighborhood was an affordable place to live but was still surprised that it was so high on StreetEasy's list.
"You have the Christmas tree house. That brings a lot of tourists," he said. "It’s nothing to make people move into the area, though."
However, Lightfeldt maintained that the popularity of New York City's outlying neighborhoods was not a shock but rather followed a pattern of people moving away from Manhattan.
"20 years ago, we were talking about Brooklyn neighborhoods," he said, "and now it's really about the outlying areas of Queens, Brooklyn and The Bronx."
