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Key Races Come Down to Turnout and Willingness to Split Ballots

By DNAinfo Staff on November 2, 2010 8:08pm  | Updated on November 2, 2010 11:40pm

By Jill Colvin

DNAinfo Reporter/Producer

MANHATTAN — The fate of the State Senate and several offices likely hinged on two things Tuesday night: voter turnout in New York City and whether voters were willing to split their ballots and cross party lines.

Only 400,000 of the city’s 4.3 million registered voters chose to participate in September’s primary election, according to the New York Times.

But so far on Election Day, observers say that turnout in the five boroughs appears to be higher than expected, especially downstate.

"The only thing that matters is who turned out to vote," New York Democratic political consultant Hank Sheinkopf said.

The more upstate and suburban voters, the better Republicans were expected to do as they attempted to take a majority in New York's Senate and key Albany offices, such as comptroller.

Republican candidate for New York State comptroller Harry Wilson, left, and Democratic incumbent Thomas P. DiNapoli shake hands before a debate at Pace University in New York.
Republican candidate for New York State comptroller Harry Wilson, left, and Democratic incumbent Thomas P. DiNapoli shake hands before a debate at Pace University in New York.
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AP Photo/John Marshall Mantel, Pool, File

Another key factor was whether or not voters had chosen to split their ballots.

Historically in New York, 35 to 40 percent of voters vote for Democrats across the ballot, while 25 to 30 percent vote Republican down the line, Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said.

But this year, thanks to a deep frustration with Albany and voter dissatisfaction with Tea Party-backed Republican gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino, the number of voters willing to break that mold could jump, pollster Craig Charney said.

Charney said the new voting machines could also boost cross-party voting because of the way the columns are designed.

"I think it’s certainly harder to vote a straight party line ballot because of the new ballots," he said.

Bill O’Reilly, a spokesman for Republican Harry Wilson’s campaign for comptroller, said the campaign has long been courting Democratic voters throughout because it knows that in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans two-to-one, Wilson can’t win without them.

"We’ve been specifically asking Democrats and Independents to cross over," O’Reilly said.

He pointed out that it's not unusual for the comptroller to come from the opposite party than the governor.

"People do like to see a balance of power," he said.

Lawyer David Gerstein, 78, who cast his vote on the Upper West Side Tuesday, said he didn’t pay attention to party when he picked Democrat Andrew Cuomo for governor and Republican Harry Wilson for comptroller.

He said that with Paladino at the helm, it's hard for many Republicans to vote for their party's head.

Gubernatorial candidates Carla Paladino (l.) and Andrew Cuomo shook hands before the debate at Hofstra University on Long Island Monday night.
Gubernatorial candidates Carla Paladino (l.) and Andrew Cuomo shook hands before the debate at Hofstra University on Long Island Monday night.
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AP Photo/Kathy Kmonicek

"Moderate Republicans don’t have that choice when you have some of these Tea Party types," he said.

But not all voters were open to straying from their parties.

"Let me put it this way — hell will freeze over before I vote for a Republican at any level," said Chelsea resident Teri Noel Towe, 62, after voting Tuesday morning.

Steven Ruth, 60, an Upper West Side resident, also said his vote was was dictated by his registration.

"I voted straight Democratic, because it's my party and I love it," said Ruth, a flight attendant.

"I don't know much about [State Sen. and attorney general candidate] Eric Schneiderman, but he's part of the Democratic ticket, and I'm pretty loyal," he said.