By Jill Colvin
DNAinfo Reporter/Producer
MANHATTAN — With primary voting set to begin Tuesday at 6 a.m., many of the state's biggest races are still too close to call.
In the five-way Democratic showdown for state attorney general and the Republican race for governor, polls show candidates running head-to-head. Meanwhile, the fate of embattled Harlem Congressman Charles Rangel hangs in the balance.
In the competition to replace gubernatorial candidate Andrew Cuomo as AG, the latest Siena poll shows Upper West Side State Sen. Eric Schneiderman and Nassau County District Attorney Kathleen Rice neck-and-neck, with Schneiderman polling at 25 percent, Rice at 23 percent, and 29 percent of the Democratic electorate still undecided.
While Rice had been considered the favorite early on, thanks to fundraising numbers that dwarfed the competition, several revelations — including the news that when she first registered to vote, she did so as a Republican, and then she failed to vote for nearly twenty years — overshadowed her campaign.
Schneiderman was able to pick up momentum in recent weeks, earning numerous high-powered endorsements, including from the New York Times.
Nonetheless, Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg points out that many voters are still unfamiliar with the candidates in the AG race.
“Even among likely Democratic primary voters — those that pay the most attention — Rice and Schneiderman remain unknown to roughly half the voters and the others even more,” Greenberg said in a statement.
Also duking it out are the two Republican candidates for governor, one of whom who will face Democratic nominee Andrew Cuomo in the general election. While Republicans Rick Lazio was considered by many to be a shoo-in, he is now polling evenly with Carl Paladino, whose campaign has been bolstered by support from the Tea Party.
Paladino's support is especially strong upstate, meaning that city voter turnout will likely matter more than ever.
"The percentage of eligible voters who show up to vote on Tuesday — and who they are and where they come from — will likely determine the outcome of all of these hotly contested primary elections,” Greenberg said.
But New York political consultant Hank Sheinkopf said he's putting his money on Paladino, and he blames Lazio for falling behind.
"He's not perceived as a guy who can fight to fight," Sheinkopf said of Lazio. "He's a punching bag."
Nonetheless, he said, in the end, neither Republican has a chance against Cuomo in the fall.
In Harlem, Charlie Rangel is in a bitter fight with Adam Clayton Powell IV for his House seat. A recent poll showed that 70 percent of Manhattan voters want Rangle to leave office one way or another.
New York University Political Science professor Steve Brams, who specializes in elections, said that many who've been in office as long as Rangel face problems as they start to take their positions for granted.
"What we know is that congressmen after they’ve been in so many years, their chances of winning actually decrease," he said. The peak usually comes at 20 years, he said.
But Sheinkopf said he expects Rangel to hold on.
"If he's lucky, he'll get 40 percent [of the vote]," he said. "I think it will be a lot closer than people will anticipate, but he'll win."
The polls will open at 6 a.m. To find out where to vote, click here.
