By Nina Mandell
DNAinfo Reporter/Producer
MANHATTAN — By the time local hoops star Lance Stephenson was 12 years old, the people surrounding him were convinced he'd be a first round pick in the NBA draft by 2010.
Stephenson will find out if the prediction was spot on or if he's just another overhyped New York City basketball prospect as the NBA conducts its annual rookie draft Thursday night at Radio City Music Hall.
Stephenson, the subject of his own documentary by age 16, earned a reputation as one of the top prep players in the country, on par with projected top pick John Wall while playing for the Lincoln Railsplitters in Coney Island.
Stephenson lead Lincoln to four PSAL titles and broke the New York State scoring record 2,946 points, topping the mark previously set by former Railsplitter Sebastian Telfair.
However, Stephenson's off the court issues have hurt his draft stock since he left Lincoln.
Stephenson had a decent, but certainly not a stand-out, freshman year at Cincinnati, but he failed to dominate opponents on the court like he did at Lincoln.
The 6-foot-5 shooting guard has an NBA body and is a good scorer, but he lacks the explosiveness of top prospects like Wall and Georgia Tech forward Derek Favors. Worst of all, his reputation as a selfish player on the court has made NBA general managers think twice about giving him a guaranteed contract that comes along with a first-round selection in the draft.
Stephenson has been slated as a mid-to-late first round pick in some mock drafts, but there are many who believe he'll slide into the second round, if not worse.
“I think there are some teams that see him as a second round leaper,” said Luke Winn, who covers college basketball for Sports Illustrated.
There are also teams who wouldn’t take a chance on the hyped star, despite being in the top 15 of the class of 2009 rankings in high school with John Wall (the projected first pick), DeMarcus Cousins (a projected early first-round pick) and Derrick Favors (also a projected early first rounder).
For Stephenson, it’s been a long way down from the top. In high school, Stephenson was charged with sexually assaulting a girl at a bus stop. In 2008, he was cut from Team USA 18-and-under trials, with coaches telling the Daily News he was a selfish player — a trait Winn said often appeared in his one year at Cincinnati, where he averaged 12 points and 5.3 rebounds a game.
And since the documentary came out, his father has been questioned privately and publicly by journalists and coaches for his over-involvement in his son’s career — something that as early as 2005, Sports Illustrated’s Seth Davis warned about, writing “It doesn't help that Stephenson's father, Lance Sr., has a reputation for being an overexuberant sports dad who often shouts profanity from the bleachers. “
Aside from the woes with his father, Winn said his poor reviews in college are a combination of bad choices — in shooting as well as behavior on and off the court.
“I think at Cincinnati he had a questionable shot selection,” Winn said. “He killed himself because he had bad shot selection and questions about his attitude.”
But Stephenson, in recent interviews, claimed he’s trying to change people’s minds about whatever stigma he may be carrying from his days at Cincinnati, or Lincoln High, starting with taking off some extra pounds that held him back on the court.
“I’m used to eating McDonald’s, chicken wings, French fries,” he said in a videotape interview with draftexpress.com. “When I went to Las Vegas they put me on a protein diet and that made me eat right and lose a lot of weight too and gives me a lot of energy on the court.”
His new physique and work ethic may not be enough to impress scouts, many of whom think Stephenson came out of college too early and with too much baggage.
Stephenson told draftexpress.com he’s not worried about his falling stock — in fact, for a player who has been atop of the rankings since middle school, he said he welcomed it.
“I feel like I’m the underdog,” he said. “And I’m going after people now.”
The only question going into tonight's draft is — will someone give him that chance?
