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MAP: See What Long-Term Effects of Carbon Pollution in NYC Look Like

By Savannah Cox | October 13, 2015 1:26pm

The long-term impacts of carbon pollution can be hard to visualize, but a new interactive map seeks to remedy that.

The map, called "Surging Seas, Mapping Choices," launched by nonprofit Climate Central, shows multiple versions of a future New York City based on different levels of carbon emissions and how they'd affect the sea level.

Based on the carbon choices users make in the map settings — such as minor to extreme carbon emission cuts, and 1.5 - 4 degree Celsius temperature increases over the next century — the maps produce scientific projections of sea levels after the year 2100. The color blue shows areas that will be permanently underwater.

DNAinfo New York tested the "Surging Seas" map out, and chose to view a future Manhattan if carbon pollution continues unchecked (left), and if extreme carbon cuts are made (right):

Sea Levels

The ways we heat our homes or get to work can impact the amount of carbon in the air, meaning that programs that improve a building's energy efficiency, clean the city's power supply and transportation options are all helpful in reducing carbon pollution, according to a November 2014 report released by the City of New York.

While unchecked pollution levels spell pretty wet futures for a number of New York City neighborhoods, the results also show that markedly different outcomes are possible pending the choices we make — and to Dr. Ben Strauss, the man who led the "Surging Seas" team, that's exactly the point.

"People sometimes hear climate science and think we're doomed no matter what," Strauss said.

"We want to show that there are different endings to a story, and the ending we get depends on the choices we make."

Nearly three years after Hurricane Sandy, Strauss hopes that his team's visualizations can inform future resiliency thinking for the city.

"Even in the best case carbon scenario," Strauss says, "we are going to see a lot of sea level rise. In the long run, we'll have a Sandy-level flood at a high tide."

"We can't just plan for a certain level rise and think we're done. If we want to protect the city in the truest most permanent sense, then we need a long-term perspective," Strauss said.

Beyond planning, to Strauss these maps are about deciding what world we want to leave for future generations.

"We wanted to paint a picture that would show people the difference to our legacy between high and low carbon emissions," Strauss said.

"Surging Seas" maps produce futures based on peer-reviewed scientific research led by Climate Central and published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

The maps currently cover the United States, and the team plans to extend it globally in November.