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Can This Stat Created By A College Senior Help The Cubs Score Runs?

By Justin Breen | September 23, 2015 6:10am | Updated on September 24, 2015 8:45am
 Roosevelt University's JP Hochbaum made the Correlated Run Contribution stat for a class project.
Roosevelt University's JP Hochbaum made the Correlated Run Contribution stat for a class project.
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JP Hochbaum

CHICAGO — JP Hochbaum believes he's created a statistic that will help his beloved Cubs — or any other baseball team — score runs.

The Wrigleyville resident this year developed the Correlated Run Contribution (CRC) stat while in a Roosevelt University "Big Data" class. The stat essentially combines a player's batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage to create a number that can help predict which player will do best at driving in runs when runners are on base.

"It's just another tool in the toolbox of stats," said Hochbaum, 35, who's scheduled to graduate from Roosevelt in December.

An ideal Cubs lineup against left-handed (l.) and right-handed (r.) pitchers based on CRC, according to JP Hochbaum. (**** = not enough at-bats)

Hochbaum was challenged by his professor, Eric Berkowitz, to find out how a series of inputs would result in an output. The inputs turned out to be adding batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage, resulting in the CRC.

Berkowitz said the stat is better than the current on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS).

"This would help MLB teams and others better predict the relative future offensive performance of players than solely relying on OPS scores," Berkowitz said.

Justin Breen says the stat helps predict an ideal batting order:

Hochbaum is a lifelong fan of the Cubs and stats. When he was 14, he faxed a breakdown on how baseball players could get paid based only on their stats to Chicago radio station The Score and was interviewed by hosts Mike North and Dan Jiggetts.

He sent his data to the Cubs earlier this year but hasn't heard back. A Cubs spokesman said he wasn't aware of the stat or whether the team had received Hochbaum's information.

Hochbaum is eagerly awaiting the Cubs' first trip to the playoffs since 2008 — their magic number Wednesday morning to clinch a postseason spot was 3. He and his wife also are expecting their first child, around April.

Although they don't know the gender yet, the child "will be a Cubs fan," Hochbaum promised.

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