LINCOLN PARK — Ald. Michele Smith's campaign is hoping to avoid a runoff in her bid for re-election, but her challengers say not so fast.
Smith's campaign's latest internal poll put her ahead of the four-candidate pack with 50 percent of the vote.
The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted by GBA Strategies, puts Smith right on the threshold of the 50 percent vote needed to avoid an April runoff.
In the survey, which was conducted from Jan. 3-6, Caroline Vickrey received 12 percent of the vote, Jen Kramer 8 percent and Jerry Quandt 3 percent. The poll found 27 percent undecided.
The poll had a 5.6 percentage points margin of error.
Smith's favorability rating in the ward was 42 percent compared to 23 percent unfavorable, according to her campaign's polling data.
That data also indicated Rahm Emanuel was winning 70 percent of the vote in the 43rd Ward.
The poll was taken before two candidate forums: One hosted by the Wrightwood Neighbors and a second hosted by the Ranch Triangle, Sheffield Neighbors and Lincoln Central Association.
Hundreds of residents attended the forums.
Kramer's campaign said Smith's poll numbers do not represent the current state of the campaign campaign, which has heated up over the past two weeks.
"The fact is, this race is headed to a runoff and we believe strongly that's what both of these polls say," said Tim Nazanin, spokesman for Kramer's campaign.
Kramer's campaign commissioned a poll of 300 likely 43rd Ward voters between Nov. 9 and 13 that showed Smith getting 40 percent of the vote.
In that poll, Kramer had 13 percent, Vickrey 13 percent and Quandt 3 percent with 33 percent undecided.
In that poll, Smith's favorability rating was 39 percent and 31 percent unfavorable.
Over the past two weeks, Smith, Kramer and Vickrey's campaigns have distributed mailers.
Kramer's campaign has already sent five, a fact her campaign expects will increase her polling numbers over Smith's campaign's poll.
Avoiding a runoff during the Feb. 24 election would be very significant, Smith said.
"Considering that the City Council as a whole has an approval rating of 20 percent, I'm exciting that I'm well regarded by my constituents," Smith said. "At this point, still several weeks out from the election, that the poll results show that."
Vickrey has been confronting Smith's "lack of transparency" on development processes during the first two debates.
Smith's campaign has a major financial advantage through the end of the year, as of the latest disclosure.
Smith's campaign has $310,785 on hand, compared to Kramer's $86,448, Vickrey's $41,002 and Quandt's $241, according to campaign finance reports.
Those numbers are through Dec. 31.
As of the end of the year, Smith's campaign had spent $39,237, Kramer's has spend $58,837, Vickrey's $37,608 and Quandt's $9,321.
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